Diligent fakes, start your work
Don't laugh, PJ. The authorities have been vigorously fighting poverty in recent years. Every month we were told on TV screens, in paper media... and everywhere, what measures the government was taking.
Former Prime Minister Medvedev said that he would reduce poverty by 300%. I was surprised then: 100% are all poor. How much is 300%? Well, okay, then the whole world had fun.
Current Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin blamed the coronavirus for the collapse of the fight against poverty. What should we think about this? The fight was almost a success. Poverty has almost been overcome.
And here... no one expected that such a failure would happen in the fight. The coronavirus has crept up unnoticed... yes, it will hit all over Russia
. And the fight against poverty ended with a copper basin.
Coronavirus simply negated all the achievements in the fight against poverty
Mishustin said that the labor sector has undergone severe cataclysms. Therefore, all achievements in reducing poverty and providing employment to the country's population are at risk.
Don't swear, Russian citizens. The damn virus is to blame. If it weren’t for him...then...they would have already lived like in Christ’s bosom. But it didn’t work out. Once again.
Do you have a poverty complex?
Olga Gribach
Oct 29, 2020 · 4 min read
Let's try to figure out why some of us simply cannot let the energy of money into our lives, preferring to remain unhappy poor people, barely making ends meet until the end of our days. What motivates them? What prevents them from enjoying all the benefits of life and the Universe?
There are a number of thoughts that, turning into actions, over time program people into poverty.
Let's look at some of them. As soon as you notice any of them, try to immediately eradicate it from your thinking and your life.
1. Self-pity.
Without even trying to change anything and not having time to give up, you simply justify yourself, in this case your brain plays a cruel joke on you. Remember: he can justify everything for you, in a color that suits you. Here he is justifying your laziness.
You constantly feel sorry for yourself and cry over your unfortunate fate. Either you have no money, then education is not relevant, then your health has let you down, then you are overweight, then they don’t understand you. Everything is against you! And you make everything a reason for your excuses.
Remember: bad weather happens much more often than good weather. But is this a reason not to go outside? We just dress according to the weather. And your constant complaints about fate will only worsen your situation. People around you will get bored of this very quickly. It doesn't matter how well they treat you. You just can’t be someone’s vest forever. What you are doing will only lead you to an even more hopeless situation - lack of money, loss of interesting contacts, personal connections, low-paid work and worsening living conditions.
2. Material way of thinking.
If you are used to evaluating everything in financial terms, this will not lead to good things.
Only those who are afraid of poverty naively believe that money can bring happiness. In fact, to be happy, healthy and joyful, you can do without an expensive car, branded clothing and a salary with a bunch of zeros. Everyone talks about what they are missing. It is the poor people who will always tell you the amounts and tell you about their life in money. It seems to them that this is all they need to be happy.
In fact, your bank account and mansion will never be your wealth. Love, friendship, health, those things that are earned through painstaking mental work - these are the things that can really make a person happy. Having all this, you can easily attract money without even focusing on it.
3. Permanent savings.
If you only go to sales, are afraid to leave a tip to the waiter, envy others and their earnings, and think that it’s too early to have a child because you don’t have the money to support him, this is no longer wise frugality. This is simply the psychology of poverty. Everything has its price. If you are not willing to pay real value for things, you are simply not willing to appreciate the work of others. So why do you then think that you should be assessed fairly?
4. Loans.
Don't spend more than you earn if you're doing it with borrowed money.
5. Least favorite job.
Why do you force yourself to work where you don't like? Are you a masochist? Or do you think you don't deserve more? It has been scientifically proven that those who go to a job they don’t like are already subconsciously prepared for failure. They are used to doing things that are unpleasant to them. Try for once to do what you need and like, and not someone else.
6. Disrespect and dislike for your family.
Remember all the rich people you know? Even historically. So here it is. For them, family is the greatest value in the world. It is your relatives who will be the first to come to your aid in difficult times and give you comfort and support.
7. Waiting for the “end of money.”
If you are constantly in tension, expecting that the money is about to run out, this is a wake-up call. Money is flexible energy. Today they are there, tomorrow they are not, try to cling to them and they will disappear.
Be happy and grateful for everything you have and more!
Have we noticed the fight against poverty?
It seems that no. Such a struggle was waged very weakly. Rather, it boiled down to ensuring that the poor finally died out. And then... Let's not guess what could have happened then.
What has been done to ensure that there are no poor people? Salaries remain the same as they were 10 years ago.
Small businesses closed frequently, prices rose immoderately, and housing and communal services also did not lag behind (tariffs). Taxes have been raised and the cost of living has been lowered.
All this happened long before the coronavirus pandemic.
And then specialists from Rosgosstrakh (why are they? There are no more sociologists?) conducted a study and determined that over the past six months the share of Russians with an income below 15,000 rubles has increased from 38.1% to 44.6%.
Half the country lives on 15 thousand rubles a month. And these numbers have nothing to do with the coronavirus attack. But the authorities stubbornly continue to ignore the obvious. And they assure us that the fight against poverty is almost won. Just wait a little longer...
Why Surkov’s article is dangerous: come to terms with poverty and don’t rebel
This type is based on the idea of “deep nationality” and the unity of ordinary people and power: they say, Putin’s state is both unique and strong because it can hear and understand the people and see them “to the full depth.” Our model is based not on some illusory institutions, as in the West, but on the trust of society in the first person.
It should be noted that the article was published in, frankly speaking, difficult times - the standard of living is falling, the economy is developing on paper, and even then its “growth” began only after the change of the head of Rosstat. But protest and social pessimism are intensifying.
Last year showed that society is angry because of poverty, inequality, and anti-social reforms. As a result, the government’s ratings plummeted (and this trend continues). Against the backdrop of accumulated negativity, the left forces raised their heads - and they have already begun to win elections in the regions.
Realizing the crisis of the situation, the Kremlin, however, is not yet ready to undertake reforms: after all, in order to really overcome poverty, it is necessary to change the entire economic model, and this will hit the interests of raw materials workers and other ruling oligarchy. The authorities are afraid of upsetting the balance of power within the elite and therefore find themselves in a stalemate: they must somehow pull out ratings, but at the same time not “shake the foundations.”
The article seems to suggest a way out: instead of carrying out reforms, declare that poverty is not poverty at all, but a spiritual feat of the Russian people, “voluntarily” abandoning the Western “consumer society” for the sake of “spiritual bonds” and “the greatness of the country.”
This is “there”, “with them”, “outside” - the first place is to eat, relax under the palm trees, buy brands and generally indulge in all sorts of debauchery. And we have spirituality, non-covetousness, asceticism, fasting and other good things. To work for pennies until old age, to deny ourselves everything - but we have a great power and our own, “organically developed model” of statehood, which is “not like in the West.”
If you apply this ideology, then you can leave everything as before: the ruling elite lives happily ever after, and the people support them, and are happy at the same time. After all, the main thing is trust and unity.
Let's leave behind the scenes the obvious administrative and political meaning of Vladislav Surkov's speech - the Kremlin ex-curator of domestic policy is simply reminding the head of state of himself, trying to regain his former trust.
But it is worth dwelling in more detail on the ideology of his article, since, alas, it can touch many people - both within the elite and among the common people.
Why alas? Yes, because living according to such an ideology is not only uncontemporary for modern Russia, but also simply dangerous if we really want to establish ourselves as a great power. And the point here is not at all in the idea of eternal “Putinism” - God bless it - but in a principled approach to social policy and Russia’s position in the world.
It should be noted that Vladislav Surkov is not an innovator. The ideology of “nationality”, a special type of “unity”, etc. was used in Russia more than once - and always by authorities who either felt a lack of legitimacy or did not want to solve accumulated social problems, but at the same time sought to prevent discontent among the population.
It all started when absolutist monarchies began to transform in the West, giving way to the first constitutional systems. Our kings did not want to part with absolutism. Therefore, already Alexander I at the beginning of the 19th century began to think about the identity of the Russian state and about spiritual “brace” as an ideology replacing the European ideas of constitutionalism (let us remember in this regard the Minister of Education Shishkov, whom Pushkin laughed at).
Alexander's successor, Nicholas I, went further and introduced the so-called "official nationality" theory - very reminiscent of the ideology proposed by Vladislav Surkov. There was both spiritual unity and a special form of relationship between the sovereign and the people. The immediate cause of Nikolai Pavlovich’s ideological quest was, of course, the Decembrist uprising, which greatly frightened the young tsar.
Throughout his reign, Nicholas was afraid of the revolution - because of this, he ordered to strengthen cane discipline (and received the nickname Palkin), limited education, sent students to become soldiers, etc. And he also avoided in every possible way solving the pressing problem at that time - the abolition of serfdom.
The result, as we remember, was the weakening of Russia, the accumulation of economic problems, and defeat in the Crimean War.
However, this did not prevent the theory of “official nationality” from reviving again after a short time. The topic turned out to be tenacious, since in it Russian absolutism found a convenient way not to change in a changing world, prolonging its existence as much as possible.
And this, unfortunately, turned out to be its only meaning: the beautiful-sounding ideology of a “special state” gave Russia nothing but bureaucratization, lack of rights, separation of power from the people and extremely low quality of governance. This was developed under Alexander III and Nicholas II.
The last two tsars, frightened by the social unrest in the country, revived the idea of “original statehood” and “unity of the tsar with the people,” contrasting them with the institutions of the “decaying West.” Parliamentarism was declared “the great lie of our time,” the independence of justice was severely limited, police measures on society and censorship were strengthened.
The most amazing thing is that the ideologists who praised this “special path” seriously considered tsarist absolutism as an advanced, effective and immortal model - “for the entire coming century.” Why do peasants need land and workers need social guarantees if they have such spiritual wealth? The necessary reforms were never carried out, and those that were started were not completed.
There is no need to remind you how the stubbornness of the Russian tsars ended - the skating rink of the revolution rolled through them and throughout the country.
In general, if we ignore domestic historical horror, then Vladislav Surkov’s concept is a reissue of the far from new, and not only Russian, “ideology of underconsumption” - that is, the ideology that the ruling elite in societies with strong social stratification and inequality promotes in order to convince the people give up claims to modern material goods and freedoms - and at the same time not rebel against power.
This usually happens in an undeveloped economy, in which there are not enough resources for everyone, which means you have to decide who should consume and who should fast. “Ideologies of underconsumption” were especially in demand in the ancient world and the Middle Ages. Now they have become recognized as archaic, lingering only in certain countries.
What is especially surprising: they are seriously asking us to consolidate this outdated concept now - when the world has long ceased to be measured by national pride and has moved on to competition in economies, technologies, brains and quality of life, and Russia - in terms of all this - has lagged far behind and is rapidly continuing to lag behind.
Even if we look at our great eastern neighbor, we will see that in recent years China has been building its future based on economic influence, investments in technology, science and education, and not on naked theories about its own greatness. Russia today needs an ideology of development, not self-praise.
Therefore, both the people and the authorities themselves should open their eyes and understand that the world has changed dramatically: a primitive economy and deep social stratification evoke sympathy, but not respect - even if the country has the most modern models in its arsenal.
If we want to see a great Russia, we need to develop the economy, science, culture and raise people's living standards. This is reality, nothing personal.
Read the material “What’s wrong with Surkov’s article about Russia and Putin”
How do they help low-income families in Russia?
The main area of social disadvantage in our country is families with minor children. In 2020, they accounted for 81% of all poor households.
The goal of reducing poverty by half will be achieved in Russia if the proportion of people who do not have at least an official subsistence level decreases. To achieve this goal, the government decided to focus on supporting families with children as the largest group of people in need. The circle of recipients of such support has been expanded, and payments have been increased to an amount that makes the support real.
As a result, in 2020, the shameful allowance of 50 rubles, which was paid for a child from 1.5 to 3 years, became a thing of the past. Now the monthly payment for children at this age is on average 12 thousand rubles. Only those families whose average per capita income is below two subsistence levels receive it. But during the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, one-time additional benefits of 10 thousand rubles. were established for all children under 16 years of age.
Article on the topic
Will the poor be exempt from pension taxes? Up to RUB 616,617 maternity capital increased. And from this year, for the first time, it became available to families in which only the first child was born.
But what if the children grow up and it becomes more and more difficult to make ends meet? This is the situation in which the large Zherlov family, living in the Buryat village of Zaigraevo, found themselves. In 2020, the oldest child was 6 years old. The maternity benefits that Ksenia’s mother, the head of the circle at the House of Culture, received were spent instantly, and the driver’s father’s earnings were too small. The Zherlovs’ life changed after she entered into a contract with a center for social support of the population, according to which the Buryat authorities provided the family with a cow free of charge.
“I had to learn how to milk. We immediately had our own milk, cottage cheese, and sour cream,” recalls Ksenia. – According to the contract, it was necessary to raise a heifer and give her to another family. We have fulfilled this condition. And now there are already 5 heads in our herd. We got chickens and raise piglets for sale. We took out a tractor on credit and are planning to buy a big car to take our children to school.” The Zherlovs already have five children, but all previous financial difficulties have been forgotten.
In 2020, 89.3 thousand such social contracts were concluded in Russia, helping to take a step out of need. They helped some people get a household, others - get training and find a stable job, and others - open their own business, for which up to 250 thousand rubles are allocated. But the financial capabilities of the regions are different. Therefore, starting next year, all of them will be helped in such programs by the federal budget. This means that there will be more options for social contracts and people to whom they are available.
Case history: poverty syndrome
University of Illinois professor Oscar Lewis (1914-1971) conducted a series of studies in the 50s on the lifestyle of poor families and came to the conclusion that the lower strata of the population, in conditions of constant need, develop their own attitudes, values and sustainable patterns of behavior, which are socially inherited and contribute to the persistence of poverty.
(Merchenko S. Case history: poverty syndrome. // Quatrain style - No. 9 (101) - 2011 - p. 52-54)
Svetlana Merchenko finds out how to get rid of it and whether it is necessary at all.
Symptoms and signs
"Poverty is not a vice!" - they have been instilled in us since school days. Few people remember the content of the play of the same name by Alexander Ostrovsky, but the very idea that being poor is not shameful has deeply entered our consciousness. And who are they - the poor? What is the threshold for being in this category? And if this is not a defect, then maybe it is a syndrome? Poverty syndrome is a sociological term. Poverty as a phenomenon has always existed - at all times, under all forms of government and political systems of the state. The poverty syndrome is closely related to the psychology of poverty, a phenomenon not only social, but also personal, because poverty is not only a minimum income, but also a special way of life and lifestyle, it is also norms of behavior, stereotypes of perception and psychology passed on from generation to generation.
These notorious “norms of behavior” and “lifestyle” are so tight in their iron grip that they form a basic inner confidence in a person that poverty is inevitable. This is instilled from childhood, and at first not directly, but as a matter of course. Adults talk, and children listen to conversations about how all “rich people” are either lucky or they are thieves. And no matter what you do, you will still remain poor. And so why do anything at all? Losing is inevitable, no matter how you were a beggar, you will remain so! “They” have everything covered there; they are not going to let such a simple worker into their “rich ranks.” Therefore, be happy with what you have. We have never traveled abroad - and there is no need, it’s much better here on the lake! And in this Turkey, what should we do? This is the kind of passion they show on TV. Therefore, we feel good here too - we’ll have a good rest with beer and sausages in our forest! Approximately such beliefs are instilled from a very young age, if not with mother’s milk. Beliefs of impossibility, inevitability and other sad “nots”.
Why do more?
This is how the poverty syndrome manifests itself – as resignation to poverty. This is reluctance and lack of faith that you can somehow change your personal situation. And the most important thing is the absence of any active actions that go beyond what the surrounding passive people of the same social group are doing. Gradually, a person becomes familiar and comfortable in the image of a poor and beggar. Moreover, seeing the stratification of society, noticing wealthy, rich and very rich people, an attitude begins to form that they “should” - just like that, because they “have a lot”. How they came to this “much” and how much it actually is is another question, which for some reason is not focused on.
To reach another social and everyday level, a person needs to fight not only the economic causes of poverty, but also the values and norms that justify passivity and dependency. You need to find these attitudes, realize them and change them to others. It is always easier to give advice than to act, but there is no other way. Until we ourselves open this circle of our beliefs and prejudices and release ourselves into a new “orbit” of existence, we will not be able to get rid of poverty.
One of my acquaintances, the owner of a small company, was perplexed, complained, and then became indignant that the most difficult thing was to find a suitable person for small positions of storekeeper, general worker, and so on. And he was outraged by the fact that people were not going to work responsibly for these “pennies.” In their understanding, if they pay little, then they can work poorly. And when he offers the opportunity to earn extra money, people refuse. Enough for beer and ok! For a private entrepreneur, who is fed not only by his head, but also by his legs, and who is ready to take any chance to develop his business, this position was simply amazing. And this is the very classic poverty syndrome, with its attitudes and vicious circle of miserable existence.
In the piggy bank for a rainy day
In a broad everyday sense, we can understand poverty syndrome as a simple discrepancy between material income and lifestyle. This is when it’s “scary” to spend money or use existing material goods. Everyone knows the situation when a person has a sideboard full of porcelain dishes, and he drinks from a cup with broken edges. Alas, the psychology of poverty is inherent in many of our parents. It’s best to leave it for a rainy day, don’t throw away old things for years in case they come in handy, don’t spend your savings on improving your standard of living, don’t take advantage of the new opportunities of modern life. One of my elderly relatives recently finally decided to part with the supplies in the attic and took 25 white shirts with pioneer symbols on the sleeves to a social institution. What else is left lying in the attic supplies is anyone's guess. And there is still a lot left, I saw...
At the same time, it is not at all necessary that people do not have money; many people with such a psychology are very wealthy people. Sometimes it gets to the point of absurdity: three families live in one apartment (parents and their family children) in order to rent out two of their apartments. At the same time, everyone is cramped, uncomfortable, with the resulting conflicts. However, they apparently value the money they receive from renting apartments more highly than a comfortable personal life.
Beliefs of Poverty
An analysis of the following typical beliefs will help you understand how personally you are susceptible to the poverty syndrome with its accompanying conformism, uncertainty and reluctance to change the situation for the better. And the examples given serve to illustrate how you can get rid of them.
Belief 1. Better a bird in the hand than a pie in the sky
For example: The psychology of humility and apathy, self-doubt and lack of faith in the best causes many to mistake difficulties for hopelessness. Some people struggle with the situation, while others put up with it. When I met Irina, she was a confident businesswoman with a “cool” car and my strict boss. And only a few years later, when the relationship began to move into the category of friendship, I learned that by first education she was a musician, graduated from the conservatory and played in a folk instrument orchestra. The future seemed brilliant if it were not for perestroika, general collapse and complete chaos. After a period of complete lack of money, night jobs and other ways to “get out”, Irina decided to get a second higher education, which would be able to “feed” her. It had nothing to do with music, to which she devoted her entire childhood and youth, and was not welcomed in the family, but Irina decided to radically change her poor life, because it became unbearable for her to walk, sometimes not even having money for a tram. She succeeded. And even very much so. Now, when she comes to visit her friends at the conservatory, she understands what her life could have been like socially and domestically if she had not then decided to take such a risky step.
Belief 2. Work should be reliable and not very difficult in order to have enough to live on.
For example: Guided by this strategy, many are afraid to take new, unexpected actions, but rely on known, albeit ineffective, strategies of behavior. “When I was offered to work as a designer in a private printing house after college, my parents were categorically against it,” says Natalya. “They convinced me to go work at school as an art teacher. “There is stability at a state-owned enterprise, but your office could fall apart at any moment,” they worried. Now, after seven years, when I have achieved excellence in my profession and decent wages, my parents have changed their opinion.”
Belief 3. Everyone's fate is predetermined - it is better to come to terms with it and not fuss in vain.
For example: “Those born to crawl cannot fly!” - said the classic, but not at all in the sense that you need to be content with what you have. And those who remember only this thought from “The Song of the Falcon” are deeply mistaken. History knows many examples of how people, with their aspiration, faith, talent, desire and work, crossed strict social, everyday, and property boundaries and became who we know them to be. Mikhail Lomonosov and Konstantin Zhukov were peasant children by birth and had to continue the way of life that had developed long before them. And he went down in history as the first Russian natural scientist of world significance and a great commander, marshal of the Soviet Union. Not everyone manages to take such an honorable place in history, but changing your personal life, moving it from the dead point of poverty and poverty is within the power of every person interested in himself.
Belief 4. The less you expect from life, the more satisfied you are with the result.
For example: Veronica knows this setting very well. Her mother, who raised her daughter alone, often liked to repeat: “I don’t care about fat, I wish I was alive.” Veronica was lucky, she married a man who over time began to belong to the category of “rich”. She left the social circle to which she had become accustomed since childhood, but oddly enough, the psychology of poverty remained. She is not so much afraid of spending money as she is unable to enjoy life. She feels it, it confuses her, constrains her, limits her, and this was the reason for turning to a psychologist. She always lives with the feeling that she does not deserve these material benefits. She cannot afford to use the services of a housekeeper, although it is difficult to clean such a large house, or buy expensive clothes - she always seems to be making excuses for the prosperity that has fallen on her. Her husband is not happy with this situation, since Veronica is trying to limit him too and does not believe in the success of his business - it seems to her that all this is a temporary phenomenon. One of the reasons for this is her upbringing, in which Veronica was forbidden to want or dream, but had to be content with little and not ask for more.
Belief 5. Money by itself does not bring happiness, so you should not think about it, learn how to earn it and increase it.
For example: It’s quite easy to despise money, especially if you don’t know how to earn it. Being rich is not an end in itself; a rich person and a worthy person are not synonymous concepts. However, money has always been the equivalent of energy that can be invested in life, pleasure, creativity, and self-realization. And lack of money is often a lack of strength, energy and opportunity. Many people know this, but not everyone is able to learn how to manage money wisely, hold it and increase it. Paradoxically, people who received a lot of money as a result of winning the lottery eventually went broke and returned to their “pre-rich” lifestyle. One of the most striking examples in Russia is the story of the Mukhametzyanovs from Ufa. In 2001, unemployed Nadezhda, who lived with her husband and two children, won $1 million in the lottery. The couple drank before winning, and after winning there were more reasons for eternal celebration. Only the group of people wishing to relax at someone else's expense has increased sharply. The ending of the story is sad: five years later, Nadezhda Mukhametzyanova died in complete poverty. Not everyone spends money so mediocrely, but few of the “unexpected rich” managed to maintain or increase their wealth. As an exception: in 2009, a resident of the remote Russian village of Saprychka, Evgeny Sidorov, won more than $1 million and invested it in his own village: he bought sports equipment for the local school, made repairs in the church, covered 3 km of roads with crushed stone, replaced the water pipe, and cleaned the ponds. I just bought a Nissan Navara SUV.
Summary
The main problem of people with poverty syndrome is the reluctance to take active steps to get out of poverty. They don't believe they can succeed and adapt to what they have. They simultaneously live in parallel worlds: in the world of dreams and in the world of cruel reality. They prefer to only dream about money, to fantasize that there will be a lot of it, as if by magic, but they do not want to earn money, take risks, or learn. Who are they, people with poverty syndrome? Maybe it’s not “they”, but us? So what do we prefer? Complain about the villainous fate or act? Everyone will answer for themselves.
The government missed its 2020 poverty reduction target
Uneven dynamics
In the first half of 2019, the poverty level in Russia grew in annual terms: in January-June last year, 19.8 million Russians (13.5%) found themselves below the poverty line. This is more than in the first half of 2020, when the population with incomes below the subsistence level was 19.6 million people (13.3%). Rosstat then explained the increase in poverty by an increase in the cost of living that was outstripping inflation.
The sharp increase in real disposable income of the population in the third quarter (+3.1%) made it possible to reduce the poverty level to 12% (17.6 million Russians below the poverty line) versus 12.5% a year earlier (18.3 million people). Real incomes of Russians also showed growth in the fourth quarter (+1.1%), the poverty level in the last quarter of last year was 9.2%, that is, 13.5 million lived on incomes below the subsistence level. This is by 0.7 percentage points. below the fourth quarter of 2020.
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Real disposable income of Russians at the end of 2019 increased by 0.8%, but this is not enough to compensate for the three-year collapse. Personal incomes fell continuously from 2014 to 2017, and in 2020 they showed near-zero growth (+0.1%). Due to the deep decline in previous years, the real disposable income of Russians at the end of 2020 remains below the 2014 level by 7.5%.
To measure poverty, Rosstat uses the concept of absolute poverty, when the income of the population is correlated with the established poverty line - the subsistence minimum. The poverty level (number and share of the population with incomes below the subsistence level) is determined on the basis of sample surveys of household budgets. They are held every quarter and cover 48.5 thousand households.
Poverty in Russia will increase at the beginning of 2020
According to the government’s plan, the poverty level in 2020 should drop to 11.1%, however, since March 2020, the situation in the Russian economy, which showed growth of 2.3% in January-February of this year, has changed dramatically. Prices for benchmark Brent oil fell by 30% after Russia and OPEC+ countries failed to agree on March 9 to extend the deal to reduce oil production (expires April 1) and Saudi Arabia decided to increase production by a third - to 12 million barrels in day - and declared a price war on its former partners. On March 27, Brent cost $26 per barrel. Due to the fall in oil prices, the Russian budget will face a deficit at the end of 2020, and accumulated reserves will need to be used to compensate for the loss of oil and gas revenues.
At the same time, an increase in the number of infections with a new coronavirus infection began in Russia, to counter which the government took quarantine measures, including stopping flights with other countries, and introducing significant restrictions for the entertainment and recreation sectors. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the spread of COVID-19 has led to a contraction of entire sectors of the economy: air transportation, tourism, the small and medium-sized business sector and other industries. The Russian economy will not be able to avoid a recession, economists say.
Real incomes of the population will fall in the first quarter of 2020, Maleva has no doubt. “The only question is the degree of depth,” she said, noting that due to Rosstat’s refusal to publish monthly data on household income, “we won’t know the statistics for a very long time.” The worsening economic situation and falling real incomes will lead to an increase in the poverty level in Russia already in the first quarter of 2020. “The poverty indicators of 2020 will be canceled even by the results of the first quarter of this year,” the economist concluded.
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